METHODS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGMENT COSTS ESTIMATION UNDER INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY

When plans are developed regarding further management of RW generated by nuclear sector, it appears quite hard to forecast the cost associated with the removal of the accumulated waste categorized as removable RW according to the Federal law № 190 On Radioactive Waste Management which is currently seen as a big challenge. Primary this is due to the limited initial data on the radioactive waste placed into storage facilities a long time ago. In this regard, this study aims to develop and test methods that can be used to assess the cost of radioactive waste management given the initial data uncertainty. Therefore, it presents a generalized financial and economic model providing cost assessment at various stages of RW management and identifies the parameters having the greatest impact on it. It also describes an approach that can be used to evaluate the uncertainties and to calculate the interval estimated radioactive waste management costs with given probabilities based on the Monte Carlo method. The discussed methods have been tested based on a case study that involved cost assessment for waste removal from the site of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise RADON (Sergiev Posad) and its subsequent disposal.

Keywords: radioactive waste, waste management, removal, disposal, cost, expenses, uncertainty, statistical analysis, Monte Carlo method.

Ilyasov D. F. Methods of Radioactive Waste Managment Costs Estimation under Initial Data Uncertainty. Radioactive Waste, 2022, no. 1 (18), pp. 16—27. DOI: 10.25283/2587-9707-2022-1-16-27. (In Russian).